:: May 2006 Volume 5/Number 3

Ecology Section:
Peak Oil

If you’re like me, you wish you could get rid of your car. But you can’t. This is L.A., “after all.” The last time you filled your tank, it probably cost at least $40. That hurts, but maybe not unbearably. More price increases at the pump, however, might induce those of us who haven’t already done so to make some dramatic changes in the way we live and the way we get around.

When it comes to gas prices, many voices - bankers, analysts, geologists - are warning that “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.” Even with a hybrid, the pump price could become intolerable within the next few years - visualize 4, 5, 6 dollars a gallon - maybe more. And sky-rocketing gas prices will affect far more than your weekly gas bill.

The days of cheap gas are just about over, forever, thanks to something called “Peak Oil.” And depending on how people like you and I respond to peak oil, it could be the best thing - or the worst thing - that ever happened to L.A.

What exactly is Peak Oil? Peak oil is the half-way marker on the global fuel gauge. It says we’ve used up half our planetary reserves, and have about the same left. But now, instead of having more and more petroleum every year, we’ll have less and less. Currently, the world burns 84-85 million barrels of petroleum per day. And, for every 5-6 barrels burned, only one new barrel is being found. That spells trouble.

Visualize the rate of oil production as a bumpy bell-shaped curve. The oil comes out of the ground first slowly, then speeds up, hits a high point, and glides back down to nothing. That curve applies equally to a single oil field, a collection of oil fields, a country and to the world.

Most oil-producing countries are past their prime. USA peaked in 1970. Until 1970, we were one of the world’s biggest oil exporters; cheap local oil funded America’s heyday, the suburban sprawl and economic boom of the 1960s. But no more. Now, only a few countries are left that haven’t peaked - Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran.
One early indicator of peak oil is the inability of supply to keep up with demand. That is now happening; there is almost no “spare capacity” anymore. Any minor disruption (hurricane, strike, terrorism) causes prices to spike. If the spike lasts long enough, it shows up at your local pump.

It’s true that new oil reserves are still being found, but they are fewer and smaller each year. The big finds, the “super-giant fields” of yesteryear, are nearing or past their peak. The new discoveries are more remote - underwater, or in the Artic Circle, more expensive to get out, and of poorer and poorer quality. This translates to less and less “net energy” for the economy to run on.
Net energy is the key idea to grasping the enormity of the implications of peak oil. “Net energy” - or energy profit - is the energy available for use from a particular medium - oil, coal, natural gas - after all the energy it took to find, extract, refine and ship it to you. Historically, oil had the highest net energy. That energy surplus has underwritten the growth cycle of the last 150 years of industrial and consumer society.

But can an economy based on perpetual growth deal with a declining energy base? That is the 100 trillion dollar question of peak oil. And what will that mean for us here in Los Angeles, one of the most car and oil-dependent cities of the world?
Dean Kubani, Environmental Programs’ Manager for the City of Santa Monica, has been tracking peak oil closely. “It seems to me that the peak oil theory is very plausible. It’s certainly played out in the past in the US. I’m personally very concerned about it. I’m leaning more towards that this is something relatively imminent that we’re not doing anything to address, so I think it’s going to have pretty serious consequences.”

What kind of serious consequences, exactly? As Kubani puts it, “I’m usually a pretty optimistic guy, but. . . My feeling is we’re not going to be able to do anything to avert a disaster. Peak oil will significantly disrupt the economy.” Kubani foresees “food prices through the roof,” and possibly even a “crashing economy.”

Two US-government-sponsored studies have recently come out warning about the impacts of peak oil, if not prepared for. Both studies, one by the US Army, the other by SAIC researcher Robert Hirsch, and paid for by the US Department of Energy, are now available online.

According to Hirsch, “the economic, social and cultural costs will be unprecedented.” The report concludes that we will need at least 10-15 years of shifting to alternative fuels, better cars, and conservation. That’s 10-15 years before peak. Hirsch did not investigate when the peak happens, or what happens if the peak is today. The Army report says we’re just about on peak now.
(A third study has recently been commissioned to double-check their conclusions - but don’t expect anything too hard-hitting: the Chairman of Chevron-Texaco is the head of the commission.)
Meanwhile, 79-year-old Republican representative Roscoe Bartlett has championed the peak oil cause in a series of late night CSPAN talks from the floor of the House. Roscoe suggests “we are in for a very bumpy ride as we transition from fossil fuels to renewables.”
The major oil companies, BP, Shell, Chevron-Texaco, have taken out huge ad campaigns attempting to address consumer discontent at high gas prices, and, no doubt, deflect even more anger to come as peak oil really starts to hit.

The natural response to all this may be to want to upgrade to a hybrid. This may be a pragmatic first step, and is endorsed by many environmental activists. Rainforest Action Network and Global Green’s “Jumpstart Ford” campaign, for example, aims to pressure Ford and GM into retooling their plants to crank out plug-in hybrids.

However, many peak oil activists caution that simply “better, cleaner cars,” biofuels, or the much-hyped “hydrogen infrastructure,” are not a realistic solution in the bigger picture. According to Eric Einem, a coordinator with the Pasadena PostCarbon Outpost, “the problem we face here in L.A. is that our city is designed around the automobile. And when people have more efficient cars they want to drive more miles. They think, ‘Hey, I have a hybrid, I’m doing my part, getting better MPG, so why can’t I drive more?’”

“The problem with people relying on more efficient cars,” Einem argues, “is that it still supports sprawl and the building of more roads. The big challenge is to redesign our cities. Until we do that there are limits to how efficient we can become.” Einem and PostCarbon propose “re-localizing” food and manufacturing as the best solution to energy decline; they advocate pedal-power and mass-transit, bringing farming closer in to the big city, and other creative “permaculture” strategies, instead of the “techno-fixes” popular with the media and business.

Re-localizers like Einem and PostCarbon support the South Central Farm, and other visionary urban food projects like Path to Freedom in Pasadena, as models of a “secure food supply.” Urban planner Richard Register, based in Berkeley, proposes special zoning models for turning suburban sprawl into “eco-cities,” or “superbias.”
Not everyone agrees with the more radical re-localization approach. Jim Bell, a solar power advocate in San Diego, says, “there’s this myth that there’s no way we can run the entire economy on renewable energy.” Bell has crafted an actionable plan for meeting the energy needs of San Diego County with solar panels covering 40% of all roof space (plus conservation). Beyond plug-in hybrids powered by solar, he sees other ways of powering cars with solar panels, using solar heat to turn biomass into biodiesel.

The City of Santa Monica has commissioned a similar study. Kubani notes that the up-front costs would be “millions and millions,” but if implemented, it would allow the city to be its own utility, achieve “net zero energy” and insulate residents from future price shocks (the US, Canada and Mexico are now past-peak for natural gas).
In the meantime, Kubani says, “the biggest thing we’re doing to address high gas prices is through our General Plan. Pretty much everything in Santa Monica is mixed-use development. We’re creating areas where people can live close to where they work, so they don’t have to get into a car to do everything they want. We’re also very strongly advocating for expansion of light rail to come down to Santa Monica. We are promoting alternative fuels in our vehicle fleet. 75 are alternative-fueled, but mostly those are natural gas vehicles. Local biodiesel organizations have helped the city to convert its fleet to biodiesel and are pushing city council to create a city biodiesel fueling facility.”

Kubani also points out that Santa Monica has the largest farmers’ markets in California: “We are strong supporters of local farming and a majority of the produce at those farms is organic, with less petroleum inputs through fertilizers and pesticides.”

Surprisingly, many of the solutions for a sane, sustainable world are in place. Many are low-tech not hi-tech, and have been known and demonstrated for two to three decades, if not millennia: bicycles, organic farming, smart building design to maximize solar heat and airflow, local community and a slower pace of life. For decades now they’ve been ignored only because the subsidy of cheap, abundant fossil fuels has allowed global society to carry on in an intoxicated growth binge.

As Kubani philosophizes, “There needs to be a paradigm shift. It will only come with a huge price shock or disaster that will really wake people up.”

The hang-over from the party may hurt, but chances are we’ll come back to what counts. The transition may not be easy, but in the long run we may see an L.A. vastly different from the one we know today.

Imagine this: L.A., once famous for its freeways, is now a city known for boulevards jammed with bicyclists, its free mass-transit system, mini-malls and giant box stores converted into hi-tech greenhouses, its corporate roofs and parking lots covered with solar panels, and millions of self-sufficient, off-grid homes that catch and store sunlight and rainwater, recycle greywater and grow their own food.
Why not?

twist@thelearningparty.com

 

 

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